Presass-11 Update: The Seasonal precipitation outlook from July to September 2024

Above normal rainfall expected over most parts of Sahelian countries from July to September 2024.

The equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean is currently dominated by warm to neutral conditions.
The temperatures (SSTs) are near to below average over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. A
transition from ENSOneutral to weak La Nina is very likely in the next season, with 73% chance
of ENSONeutral during July to September 2024.

Over Tropical North Atlantic and the southern tropical Atlantic the SST anomaly warming
condition are currently observe and during the coming month these conditions are very likely to
persist, The Mediterranean SST are near average, the prediction from July to September period
are expected neutral to warm conditions. These will lead normal to above average precipitation
to tendency normal in the central to western Sahel, the near average precipitation to tendency
below average from coastal areas of the Guinea Gulf countries.

The forecast from July to September 2024

  • The outlooks for the rainfall season during the July to September 2024 period is that
    normal to below average rainfall is expected over the western and eastern of the Guinea
    Gulf region.
  • Normal to above normal and above average rainfall is very likely over from western to
    Central Sahel region from Senegal to Chad from July to September 2024.
  • Late onset is very was observed during the season of April to June 2024 over most of the
    most parts of region.

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