NOWCASTING

Accumulated Rainfall Forecast

It is a useful assessment of how much rain will fall in a longer period and whether continued rainfall in an area is something to consider. However, it is important to consider the characteristics of the model and how well it performs in your area.

Convective Available Potential Energy

It represents the amount of buoyant energy available to accelerate a parcel vertically, or the amount of work a parcel does on the environment. CAPE is the positive area on a sounding between the parcel's assumed ascent along a moist adiabat and the environmental temperature curve from the level of free convection (LFC) to the equilibrium level (EL).

ENS Meteogram (Wind 10m, Temp 2m, total precip (mm/6h) and total cloud cover)

The Ensemble (ENS) Meteogram displays weather parameter time evolution in the high resolution (HRES, T1279), and ensemble (ENS, T639) forecasts for a given location. The ENS currently comprises 50 perturbed members, each starting from slightly different initial conditions, and an unperturbed Control forecast. The 10-day meteograms provide forecast distributions at 6-hour intervals up to day 10 for the following parameters:Total Cloud cover, Total Precipitation, 10m Wind Speed and 2m Temperature,

Forecast Verification

It Is the process of assessing the quality of a forecast. In either case it should give you information about the nature of the forecast errors. Verification with past 6 hours Sat Images, vigilance map, precip estimates, profiles of wind, RH, Convergence to assess models capacity to forecasts timing and intensity of MCSs during the last nowcasting period, give perormance of Models and historical performance from ECMWF over somes cities verification of the past hours and perfoùance of fcst for similar events.

Lifted Index

It is defined as a rising parcel's temperature when it reaches the 500hPa level subtracted from the actual temperature of the environmental air at 500hPa.

longitude height, latitude height winds, vorticity, convergence, relative humidity profiles upcoming 6 to 12hours

To diagnose current strength of MCS and its expected position and intensity for the upcoming 12 hours

Model's output (estimate precip)

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data are the form of weather model data which are most familiar with on a day-to-day basis. NWP focuses on taking current observations of weather and processing these data with computer models to forecast the future state of weather. Current weather observations serve as input to the numerical computer models through a process known as data assimilation to produce outputs of temperature, precipitation, and hundreds of other meteorological elements from the oceans to the top of the atmosphere. In operational mode we are using differents models

Outgoing Longwave Radiation

it is used to determine the brightness temperature of the cloud tops. it also allows to determine the convection

RDT

Rapidly Developing Thunderstorm - Convection Warning) product has been developed by Meteo-France in the framework of the EUMETSAT SAF in support to Nowcasting. Using mainly geostationnary satellite data, it provides information on clouds related to significant convective systems, from meso scale (200 to 2000 km) down to smaller scales (tenth of km). The RDT process includes 4 majors information: the detection of cloud systems (
cells identification, brightness Temperature limitation or correction for some special cases), the tracking of cloud systems, the discrimination of convective objects, forecasting convective cloud systems,

Relative Humidity

It is used to try to identify areas of potential moisture at different level of convergence.